Nba Money Line Explained
NBA Money Line Picks. Our premium NBA predictions and picks are driven by computer models that analyze millions of data points. We use a variety of statistical techniques to predict games, including decision trees, similarity scores, and power ratings. We publish a game winner, point spread, over/under and money line value pick for all NBA. The easiest way to understand moneyline wagers is by using a $100 bet. Using the above example, the moneyline on the underdog Buccaneers was +136. At +136 odds, a $100 wager would pay $136 in profit if the Buccaneers won the game (for a total payout of $236). Bettors often like picking underdogs because they are usually “plus” money.
Moneyline Betting in the NBA
NBA bettors are faced with many decisions on a daily basis. They have several different options on any one game, ranging from point spreads to totals to moneylines. Even though the majority of wagers placed on the NBA use the point spread, there are times when it may be more beneficial to a bettor to play the moneyline.
Determining when to bet against the point spread and when to use the moneyline isn’t necessarily easy. There is no formula that says to bet 7-point favorites on the moneyline, even though that has been extremely profitable over the past few seasons. All a bettor can really do is look at past results to help them decide if they are better off using the moneyline or the point spread and look at the game in question and how strongly they believe in their opinion.
The NBA has seen favorites cover the point spread more than the underdogs have during the past few seasons. Between the 2010-11 and 2012-13 seasons, betting $100 on every favorite of 2 to 10 points would have shown a loss of $5,740. But wagering $100 on every underdog of 2 and 10 points would have netted a loss of $22,750.
Likewise, a flat-bet on all moneyline favorites between 2 and 10 points would have shown a loss of $14,880, while blindly wagering $100 on each underdog would have yielded a loss of $30,080. In order to get a better understanding of how favorites and underdogs do both against the point spread and on the moneyline they need to be broken into four groups; point spread favorite, moneyline favorite, point spread underdog, and moneyline underdog.
Because many top sports betting sites don’t offer moneyline wagering on games with a point spread of 1.5 or less or 10.5 and higher, those games have been excluded from the three-year study.
Moneyline Favorites Point Spread Favorites
2.0 points (-130) 107-79 +430 2.0 points 94-82-10 +380
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2.5 points (-140) 108-74 +440 2.5 points 89-93-0 -1330
3.0 points (-150) 126-99 -2250 3.0 points 106-109-10 -1390
3.5 points (-165) 118-80 -1400 3.5 points 93-104-0 -2140
4.0 points (-190) 118-85 -4350 4.0 points 88-109-6 -3190
4.5 points (-200) 138-71 -400 4.5 points 105-104-0 -940
5.0 points (-220) 126-75 -3900 5.0 points 95-100-6 -1500
5.5 points (-240) 140-51 +1760 5.5 points 106-85-0 +1250
6.0 points (-250) 135-51 +750 6.0 points 99-81-6 +990
6.5 points (-300) 135-55 -3100 6.5 points 96-93-0 -630
7.0 points (-330) 139-34 +2680 7.0 points 95-72-6 +1580
7.5 points (-360) 129-34 +660 7.5 points 82-81-0 -710
8.0 points (-450) 103-21 +850 8.0 points 54-61-9 -1310
8.5 points (-500) 116-33 -4900 8.5 points 79-70-0 +200
9.0 points (-550) 98-30 -6700 9.0 points 57-65-6 -1450
9.5 points (-600) 102-13 +2400 9.5 points 74-41-0 +2890
10 points (-650) 80-9 +2150 10 points 54-34-2 +1560
Total -14,880 Total -5740
As you can see from the chart, small favorites of 2.5 points or less fared much better when bet on the moneyline compared to the point spread, showing a profit of $870 compared to a $950 loss if using the point spread. But as the lines get higher, there is definitely more value to use the point spread and stay away from the bigger moneyline prices. Favorites of six or more points showed a moneyline loss of $5,210, while betting on the favorites with the point spread would have yielded a profit of $3,120.
The chart suggests playing the extremely small favorites on the moneyline and the extremely large favorites using the point spread.
Moneyline Underdogs Point Spread Underdogs
2.0 points (+110) 79-107 -2010 2.0 points 82-94-10 -2140
2.5 points (+120) 108-74 +440 2.5 points 89-93-0 -1330
3.0 points (+130) 99-126 +270 3.0 points 109-106-10 -760
3.5 points (+145) 80-118 -200 3.5 points 104-93-0 +170
4.0 points (+165) 85-118 +2225 4.0 points 109-88-6 +1220
How To Play Moneyline Basketball
4.5 points (+170) 71-138 -1730 4.5 points 104-105-0 -1150
5.0 points (+180) 75-126 +900 5.0 points 100-95-6 -450
5.5 points (+190) 51-140 -4310 5.5 points 85-106-0 -3160
6.0 points (+200) 51-135 -3300 6.0 points 81-99-6 -2790
6.5 points (+240) 55-134 -200 6.5 points 93-96-0 -1260
7.0 points (+250) 34-139 -3380 7.0 points 72-95-6 -3250
7.5 points (+280) 34-129 -3380 7.5 points 81-82-0 -920
8.0 points (+325) 21-103 -3475 8.0 points 61-54-9 +160
8.5 points (+350) 33-116 -50 8.5 points 70-79-0 -1690
9.0 points (+375) 98-30 +1450 9.0 points 65-57-6 +230
9.5 points (+400) 102-13 -5000 9.5 points 41-74-0 -4040
10 points (+450) 9-80 -3950 10 points 34-54-2 -2430
Total -30,080 Total -22750
In a bit of irony, just as small moneyline favorites were the way to go, smaller moneyline underdogs also out-perform smaller underdogs against the point spread. Moneyline underdogs of 4 points or less showed a profit of $725, while betting underdogs of four points or less with the point spread would have yielded a loss of $2,840, so there is something to be said for taking smaller underdogs on the moneyline.
As the point spread gets higher, moneyline underdogs become worse bets than point spread wagers, although both were a losing proposition. Moneyline underdogs of 6 to 10 points showed a loss of $23,305, while those who bet the same teams against the point spread showed a loss of $15,990.
Moneylines do vary between different sportsbooks, so it always pays to shop for the best odds, which is one benefit of having more than one online account. One sportsbook may have all 3-point favorites -150 on the moneyline and +130 for the underdog, while another may make the favorite -155 and +135 on the underdog. The extra five cents will add up in a big way at the end of the season.
Nba Playoffs Explained
Other sportsbooks are reluctant to move the moneyline odds from the opening number. They may move the point spread and leave the moneyline alone, so you may be able to find some good prices on a game that has moved a point or two from the opening number.
Nba Moneyline Explained News
Don’t overlook moneyline betting in the NBA, as sometimes it may be your best bet.